Resilient Performance: Inglis Classic Sale Holds Steady Amid Economic Uncertainty

Leading into last week’s Inglis Classic Sale, there was an undercurrent of mild trepidation amongst vendors. The Magic Millions Gold Coast and New Zealand Bloodstock’s National Sales successfully swam against the economic tide, if you were to use metrics as a guide to gauge the health of the market. 

Looking at what will likely be the final statistics for the three day sale, for the same number of yearlings offered as in 2024, which was 721, gross receipts fell 3.1% to $54.5 million which, in terms of percentage drop, is the best result from the three Australasian sales conducted thus far.

The average rose a princely $45 to $92,611, so call it stable, and the median remained unchanged at $70,000. To add in a little context around those numbers, a two point drop in the clearance rate to 82% inflated those figures marginally. The key statistics here were the 3.1% fall in the aggregate, and that miniscule rise in the average. On the basis that good horses will always bring good money, the top of the market will, and did, take care of itself. It’s the middle and bottom end markets that truly reflect the health of the industry.

On the positive side, there was an increased presence of buyers from Asia that at least partly filled in gaps left by the domestic market.

With the demise of racing in Singapore and Macau shrinking the pool of buyers from Southeast Asia, the three auction houses have noticeably upped their game when it comes to courting buyers from this region. Sitting ringside, it was noticeable that investment in resources had brought more investors to Sydney. Also, after a period where horse numbers declined appreciably, the Hong Kong market continues to replenish its stables. All told 39 youngsters from Classic are earmarked eventually for the island, their combined cost of A$6.23 million, a spend of 11% of the total gross.

Bloodstock agent Willie Leung is a regular at all the better racing stock sales across Australasia and it was he who bought the top lot of the sale, a colt by Arrowfield’s The Autumn Sun out of Lonhro’s daughter Talimena for $520,000.

The Hong Kong market is very particular when it comes to stallions that appeal, and the fact that The Autumn Sun is on a roll in this market gave Leung the confidence to push on. Interviewed in the moments after his purchase, Leung, who trades as Magus Equine, said, “I liked the two Wootton Bassetts yesterday [he was the underbidder when they each brought A$400,000] but The Autumn Sun had two winners recently in Hong Kong so I thought this is the horse I should be going hardest for, so I did. I was a little bit scared I wouldn’t get him but I knew this was my best pick, I said to myself ‘I must get him’ and I got the job done.”

Leung in total spent $1.22 million on three colts: the others a $380,000 son of first crop shuttle stallion Pinatubo and $320,000 for an Ole Kirk.

Offered through Fergal Connolly’s Valiant Stud at Aberdeen in the Hunter Valley, the sale-topper made great appeal coming from a family with plenty happening currently. His now four-year-old full sister Tulsi finished runner up in the Gr.1 Sistema Stakes at Ellerslie and followed that up with a third in the Gr.1 New Zealand One Thousand Guineas. Talimena is also the grandam of Tremonti (Hellbent), the winner of the Listed Maribyrnong Trial Stakes at Flemington at his only start this season, and who is back in work at the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott stables at Flemington currently. The twice-successful Talimena is a three-quarter sister to Gr.1 Golden Rose winner and sire Denman (Lonhro) and a half-sister to the Gr.1 Golden Slipper winner Kiamichi (Sidestep).

It should be noted this was the first Inglis Sale after staff member Nikki Wong moved from Magic Millions to Inglis. There is no doubt Wong’s ability to drive international business in Asia will be a huge advantage for Inglis.

The same can be said for Bloodstock Agent; Satomi Oka, her efforts in engaging with the Japanese market paying significant dividends. In contrast to Hong Kong and its singular racing focus, the Japanese market has a history of buying at the very top end, with breeding being the long term goal. So to have seven horses sell for a combined $1.14 million may look small fry on paper, but the fact that Japanese buyers even bothered with the Classic catalogue is a major win for the auction house. In years to come, we might be looking back at 2025 and applying the old adage of ‘from little acorns do big trees grow’ when looking at Japanese investment.

Their top price was the $400,000 prominent owner Koji Oka outlaid for one of the previously mentioned Wootton Basset colts, this one being the first foal out of the hard knocking Gr.3 winning mare Monegal (Lope De Vega). Offered by the Cunningham family’s Ridgemont property at Segenhoe, Monegal shares the same blood as Gr.1 Grosser Preis von Baden and Gr.1 Derby Italiano winner Morshdi (Slip Anchor), and has as her third dam the brilliant multiple Gr.1 winning sprinter Habibti (Habitat), a half-sister to Eight Carat (Pieces Of Eight) who created a dynasty from the paddocks of Cambridge Stud in New Zealand.

Speaking through his interpreter, Koji Oka explained “I liked his walk and his movement; it was very dynamic. I also love Wootton Bassett and there are a lot of Wootton Bassetts now coming into Japan. This colt is a first foal out of the mare, but for a first foal he has a lot of quality, that’s why I like him so much. I was underbidder yesterday on a Wootton Bassett colt, so I really wanted this colt today.”

The second top price of the sale, and dearest purchase for the domestic market, was the $440,000 that agent Dean Hawthorne paid for a colt by Dundeel for Melbourne owner Jonathan Munz. Hawthorne bought, and Munz raced, another son of Dundeel in Gr.1 Caulfield Guineas winner and promising young sire Super Seth, and the agent had been looking for a colt in his likeness for some time. Of the youngster, Hawthorne said, “I bought Super Seth at this complex from the same [Arrowfield] draft and when I saw this bloke during the week, I rang the boss and said, ‘I’ve found another one’.

Whether he is or not remains to be seen, but I just absolutely loved him. He had the same balance as Super Seth. Seth had great balance, hind quarter, middle and front end, and this colt also has the same sort of head and same sort of markings. And his attitude, he moved well this colt, I snuck out into the back parade ring before he got sold and he just moved so well there too, which is what you like to see in a colt so we were not going home without him.’’

The colt was the second foal out of the Redoute’s Choice mare Mother’s Mercy, a three-quarter sister to both Gr.1 Australian Oaks winner Autumn Angel (The Autumn Sun) and the lightly raced Gr.2 winning Sprinter Baraqiel (Snitzel).

When Inglis CEO Sebastian Hutch spoke to the press after the sale, the clearance rate was a concern, made slightly more palatable in the days after as his team negotiated a string of private sales. Hutch said “I think the reality is that the Australian market has been spoiled for a long time, as to the liquidity in the market and the clearance. The clearance rate here is going to be 80% and a touch higher [it finished at 82%]. In terms of international context, that's high.” Hutch pointed out that vendors of the current yearling crop, across all sales, would be acutely aware of the investment made in producing these horses, a factor in whether or not they met the market.

“There'd be a percentage of them, or all of them, who'd be very frustrated when they sit down and look at the maths because this is the most expensive crop of yearlings anybody's ever bred.” It wasn’t lost on vendors that when these yearlings were conceived, the demand for stock by syndicators was at an all-time high, but that market all but vanished overnight as the Mum and Dad money that bought 5% shares in horses with post-COVID disposable income was redirected to pay the mortgage as higher interest rates took a hold.

Hutch also pointed to the makeup of the catalogue as an industry that has relied on a handful of stallions like I Am Invincible, Snitzel, Written Tycoon and Fastnet Rock for so long, adjusts and looks for the next wave of stallions to make their mark. “I would say the proportion of yearlings in the catalogue by young or unproven stallions, and I don't have the specific statistics to back this up, but I would say that it's as high as it's ever been for the sale. I know 56% of the catalogue lots were by stallions that had their first, second or third crop yearlings. That's high, very high. Now, that presents a great opportunity for the market because you get the chance to acquire the progeny of young horses that potentially have massive upside, and in years to come we might talk about people being able to buy the progeny of certain stallions at the Classic Sale in 2025 at what appears to be a significant discount, which is an opportunity that everybody should have availed of. But there are, on the flip side, challenges to people who are buying the progeny of younger or unproven stallions in that market. The preference of most buyers is to try and buy the progeny of proven stallions and I think it's fair to say we don't have the volume of progeny of proven stallions we might have had in the past. And that's undoubtedly a significant factor in how the market acts.”

In particular where once this sale was a happy hunting ground for pinhookers for the late-year Breeze Up Sales, stock by unproven stallions make little appeal in that market and it was noticeable that only a few high-profile re-sellers bought at Riverside.

While Magic Millions Perth concludes tomorrow, and Tasmanian yearling sales next week, the next real test of the market comes the Sunday after, with the 800 lot Inglis Melbourne Premier Sale at Oaklands commencing. The trick for the sale company will be to at least replicate the good work done at Riverside.